Finding Certainty in a Complex World

循迹研究:在复杂的世界中寻找确定性

Recently, there is often a strange sense of anxiety. After a period of self-observation and reflection, I believe it is necessary to confront these issues and attempt to provide answers.

This article is a thought experiment that examines and analyzes the current state of life and its problems, summarizing the ideological tools for guiding life and work. As a personal methodology, it contains a large amount of subjective content.

Facing Anxiety

I believe that the essence of anxiety is the fear of uncertainty.

When faced with a complex and tricky problem, handling social relationships, or feeling lost about future life, the resulting anxiety stems from a lack of sufficient certainty about the future, leading to a state of self-doubt.

Information Overload

Especially in the current era, everyone can receive a massive amount of information, including news from around the world, technological advancements, entertainment information, gossip news, etc. Almost anything you want to know can be obtained in vast quantities.

The Internet has indeed made the entire world smaller. The world is exciting, but it is driven by ordinary people. Everyone can showcase the brilliance of their lives online, while mundane lives remain hidden outside the network.

The Internet allows us to quickly understand the latest developments in the world, but it also contains a vast amount of meaningless digital noise and junk information. With the rise of content recommendation algorithms, the information we encounter is a precise recommendation targeted at personal preferences, forming an invisible digital echo chamber.

The internet is filled with various false information and complex viewpoints. There is too much information to absorb, but it is unclear what actions should be taken. This is another诱因 of anxiety, namely information overload, where an overload of information can lead to anxiety and confusion.

It is necessary to judge the source and value of information. For the same issue, try to look for different perspectives, avoid blindly taking sides, accept the multifaceted nature of things, and seek common ground while reserving differences from an objective standpoint.

Career Anxiety

Regarding career anxiety, I used to think that I should not limit my skills to a certain technology or product. However, after working for several years, I found that the deeper I engage with the business, the more inescapably all my energy and time focuses on a certain industry and technology, leading to a sense of industry binding anxiety.

For example, in the education training industry, how much does the demise of the K12 market relate to practitioners? The direction of such developments does not shift based on the will of practitioners.

As the waves of the times roll in, how ordinary people can break free from career entrapment is a tough question with no clear answer. Perhaps the only thing we can do is maintain industry sensitivity, explore different possibilities, and let the wheels of the times crush us a little later.

Moreover, it is essential to be alert to those who sell anxiety, especially when it has become a business.

Greed, anxiety, and lack of patience are the three common traits of retail investors. Catering to greed, selling anxiety, and making quick promises are the three standard postures for exploiting retail investors.

The essence of selling anxiety is to dramatically exaggerate uncertainty while creating demand, providing a low-cost solution that makes you think you don’t have to invest much effort. For those exhausted by life and seeking change, perhaps that’s their only function. This is also the reason why the business of selling anxiety continually appears in various packaged forms.

Moderate anxiety can promote proactivity; the desire not to fall behind is a motivator, but do not fall into meaningless self-doubt and internal friction—believe in yourself.

Recognize Reality

A beautiful illusion is still a dream; cherishing the present is the only truth.

When faced with troublesome issues, one may instinctively seek benefits and avoid harm, but evading does not help solve the problem; procrastination will only complicate matters further. In fact, the world does not always develop according to our expectations. It is necessary to face reality early and actively seek solutions.

Extending the time span, troublesome matters will eventually be resolved. When reflecting on past experiences, many things aren’t that significant; don’t let a panic mindset dominate—approach it calmly.

To put it humorously: a program and a person, as long as one runs, that’s fine. Of course, this is a joke; however, things that need to be solved should be taken seriously, 100%.

I can accept that I have tried and not achieved good results, but I cannot tolerate giving up without trying. Because before the final answer is revealed, as long as there is a glimmer of change, we should not give up.

It seems that in today’s societal atmosphere, “striving” has become a derogatory term, while lying flat and giving up is politically correct. Respect each person’s choice, focus on your tasks, and avoid being overly prescriptive. Pay attention to output and real gains, and do not be self-gratifying in a superficial manner.

Man proposes, God disposes. Even if heaven does not align with human wishes, one must accept failure without regret.

Focus on Essence

In this world, many matters can be better understood if one can see their essence early on, guiding where to focus attention and avoiding a lot of futile effort during execution.

Elon Musk advocates for the “first principles” approach, which means: returning to the most basic conditions of things, breaking them down into elements for deconstructive analysis, thus finding the optimal path to achieve goals.

I fully agree. I believe that in dealing with matters, whether technical or non-technical, one should strive to condense the final core demands into a non-negotiable piece of information. Based on this determined information, one should work backward to plan implementations and set goals.

Take recruitment as an example; the criteria set for many positions essentially aim to resolve trust relationships. Educational background, work experience, and big company reputation are all means of proving a candidate’s capability. They serve merely as a quantitative standard introduced to solve trust issues, and they are simple, crude, yet effective screening tools: “This person has worked for so many years/has such a good educational background; their ability must not be poor” stems from this kind of thinking.

However, there are other ways to showcase one’s capability. Since the essence of the threshold is to resolve trust relationships and lower screening costs, when one cannot directly meet the screening requirements, they should highlight their abilities in other areas, transforming trust in them into a quantifiable indicator.

I have undertaken feasible and simple practices. You can write articles, engage in open-source projects, actively communicate technology within the community, allowing more people to recognize and acknowledge your abilities. This way, it builds trust that you have the ability to meet requirements, leading to more opportunities.

Educational qualifications are something that can hardly be compensated for after reaching a certain age, but they are not insurmountable barriers in life. School grades only represent a particular life stage. Performance and ability cannot strictly be equated; life is long, and there remain many opportunities for change, albeit requiring greater effort.

Rather than regretting things from the past that cannot be changed, it is better to focus on doing the current things well and look to the future.

Decomposing Problems

As mentioned earlier, a significant诱因 of anxiety is the uncertainty of complex problems. To overcome this uncertainty and ultimately resolve the issue, it is crucial to decompose it to the fullest extent.

In computer science, divide and conquer is a significant principle based on multi-branch recursion. It involves breaking a complex problem into two or more identical or similar subproblems until the subproblems can be easily solved directly, with the solution to the original problem being the combination of the solutions to the subproblems.

Similarly, in program development, it is common to analyze and decompose requests by refining functionalities into implementation steps. Breaking a large, complex problem down into easily solvable smaller issues is the process of establishing certainty.

I named my blog “The Tracing Lab,” deriving from my approach to technology, transforming the unknown into the known. Whenever issues arise, one must firmly believe: there’s no mysticism.

When a problem occurs, one should first seek a starting point. Any valuable piece of information, be it logs, the timing of the issue, or even the steps taken, can serve as clues to begin troubleshooting. By following the clues to gradually approach the scene of the incident, a solution will naturally emerge.

The process of learning anything new is similar. First, set a goal, then outline a general direction, starting from an executable entry point, iterating towards the goal.

So-called “tracing research” means to seize the subtle clues of things to explore their essence!

In practical terms, take writing articles or technical research as an example. The viewpoints I mentioned in Tracing Research: How to Write a Good Technical Article detail the process of breaking down and evaluating goals to achieve them gradually.

Compound Interest Thinking

Compound interest is a financial concept. It refers to interest being calculated not only on the principal over a certain cycle but also on the interest generated by the principal. The importance of compound interest thinking lies in its description of an ideal earnings situation, turning earnings into principal for iterative returns.

This thinking applies not only to financial investments but also to personal growth and development. For example, when you possess certain skills or experiences, you can view them as assets and achieve a compounding effect by continuously learning and applying them, thus enhancing your value and growth.

Applying compound interest thinking to life means using what you do today as a foundation for tomorrow, continuously iterating. Changes from small accumulations often require a certain time lag to manifest their effects. Seemingly insignificant matters, if persisted in, and viewed over a long time span, will always yield significant returns in unexpected places. This is a process of “thick accumulation and thin issuance”.

Condensing the tasks you undertake into quantifiable metrics using compound interest thinking: their significance, the value they bring, and whether they can be combined with existing factors to create new positive feedback. Analyze your skill set and attempt to combine skills from different fields to create synergy.

Furthermore, one can utilize financial concepts to establish a personal balance sheet.

Understanding what valuable aspects you have—health, harmonious family, and work skills—are all assets in life. Evaluating one’s value unveils personal potential and strengths, clarifying what you can do and to what extent you can do it.

The debts in life are those things you want to do but haven’t, things you’ve done but not done well, and things you currently cannot do. The pursuit in life is a process of continually increasing “assets” and reducing “debts”.

At the end of each year, I conduct an annual summary, organizing what I’ve done over the past year, what was planned but not achieved, and what was beyond the plan. This allows for clearer self-awareness, preventing another year from passing in a daze.

Rapid Trial and Error

Accumulate certainty and experiment with uncertainty at low cost.

Those without permanent assets lack steadfastness. Everyone’s ability to bear risk varies, leading to different perceptions of risk when undertaking tasks. Especially in uncertain matters, going ALL IN is challenging and carries immense risk.

It is crucial to avoid a gambler’s mentality; be cautious in making decisions concerning uncertain matters. For ordinary people, the cost of trial and error is too high; they should opt for relatively safe approaches. Test low-cost trials rapidly; do not prolong the cycle; if expectations are not met, decisively abandon it.

Be vigilant against falling into a vicious cycle of “sunk costs.” When trial and error costs have already been consumed, continuing to invest when proven impractical will only waste more resources, which should not affect decision outcomes.

Conclusion

I believe that finding certainty in a complex and changing world requires confronting anxiety, exploring one’s passions and goals. Focus on essence and decompose uncertainties. Maintain a sense of reality and caution, continuously accumulate and quickly test, and keep a flexible attitude towards matters.

The only constant in this world is change itself.

The article is finished. If you have any questions, please comment and communicate.

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Title:Finding Certainty in a Complex World
Author:LIPENGZHA
Publish Date:2023/04/08 14:10
Word Count:11k Words
Link:https://en.imzlp.com/posts/83875/
License: CC BY-NC-SA 4.0
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